ØKO-KOST

In 2022, there was a decline in the market share of organic foods in Denmark, which had otherwise been steadily increasing over the past two decades. The changed behavior among Danish consumers can be described as 'down-trading', which refers to consumers replacing organic foods with cheaper organic alternatives or conventional products. The decline in organic consumption may be temporary, but it could also be a sign of a more general trend towards increasingly price-focused consumers. At the same time, increased attention to the climate impact of food may lead many committed organic consumers to turn away from animal products. Such a development will not only pose a challenge for organic livestock producers but may also make it harder to achieve official goals of doubling the organic farming area, especially if organic consumers also reduce consumption of organic dairy products.

The purpose of ØKO-KOST

ØKO-KOST is a social science project aimed at examining future market opportunities for organic foods in Denmark. The focus will be on the effects of a double pressure from economically challenged consumers on one side and increased concern over the climate footprint of food production on the other. By focusing on how the production and consumption of organic foods can evolve in light of increased focus on climate change mitigation, the project contributes to increasing the credibility of organic production in line with principles of health and of ecology.

The project can help facilitate continued growth in organic farming area and thus contribute to increasing the societal benefits provided by organic agriculture. Resilience is closely linked to social acceptance and responsiveness to values and concerns of key stakeholders. The project will provide insights into how the organic sector should evolve in a way that aligns with the priorities and values of consumers and organic producers.

The project step-by-step

• Consumers' reactions to price changes will be analyzed using data from a household panel recording their food purchases, covering the period before, during, and (if possible) after a period of inflation
• Through focus groups and surveys, consumers' attitudes and substitution patterns will be examined, and an updated market segmentation will be conducted to address increased price consciousness among consumers as well as increased awareness of the climate impact of food
• Concurrently, interviews and surveys will be conducted with organic farmers to understand their attitudes and choices in the green transition
• Finally, farm accounting data will be analyzed to understand how a potentially lower demand for animal products may affect costs for both livestock production and plant-based production.

Project period

2024-2027